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Nigeria’s economy is expected to witness steady growth, with analysts predicting that the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could reach 5% under President Bola Tinubu’s administration.
CEO and Founder of Awabah, Tunji Andrews, expressed confidence in this outlook during a discussion on Drinks and Mics, a podcast co-hosted by Ugo Obi-Chukwu, CEO of Nairametrics; Dele Akintola, CEO of Alerzo; and Arnold Dublin Green of Cordos Capital.
Speaking against the backdrop of the latest GDP data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) which showed a 3.84% year-on-year GDP growth in Q4 2024 in Nigeria, Andrews stated,
“I expect now that we’re going to start inching up gradually. Towards the end of this administration, we will get 5%. I just believe it. Because the factors are just saying the same thing. The way the statisticians are looking at the numbers are the same. The thing we are adding into GDP. If you look at the trajectory, GDP, adding to the base, rebasing it to a particular year, there is no how we do not hit 5% as long as we remain stable.”
The Economic Outlook
Andrews emphasized that Nigeria’s economic stability is the critical determinant of achieving this projection. He explained that rebasing GDP to a particular year and maintaining stability would naturally lead to a 5% growth rate over the next three to five years.
While his prediction is based on statistical modeling and GDP trajectory, Andrews cautioned that external shocks—such as policy missteps, global financial crises, or disruptions in key economic sectors—could derail this growth.
More insights
In its latest report, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has attributed the country’s improved economic growth in 2024 to the gains from the Federal Government’s policy reforms.
- According to the NESG GDP Alert: 2024Q4 & Full Year 2024, released on February 27, 2025, the Nigerian economy maintained an upward growth trajectory throughout the year, expanding by 3.8% in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024 relative to 3.5% in the corresponding quarter of 2023.
- According to NESG, Nigeria’s GDP growth stood at 3.4% in 2024, surpassing the 2.8% recorded in 2023.
- NESG identified a combination of fiscal and monetary policy adjustments, economic liberalization efforts, and increased investment in infrastructure as major factors contributing to the improved economic performance.
The removal of fuel subsidies, exchange rate unification, and aggressive tax reforms were highlighted as key measures that helped stabilize macroeconomic fundamentals and boost investor confidence.
Key Highlights:
- Financial analyst Tunji Andrews forecasts a 5% GDP growth by the end of Tinubu’s tenure.
- Stability is a crucial factor in achieving this economic target.
- GDP trajectory and statistical modeling support this optimistic projection.