writes on the planned protest against hardship, which its organisers are insisting will hold from August 1, despite appeals by the All Progressives Congress (APC)-led Federal Government and warnings from the security agencies of a possible hijack of the demonstration by agents of destabilization......Read The Full Article>>.....Read The Full Article>>
Over time, the world has witnessed series of political upheavals that saw ordinary people coming together to bring down regimes they tagged oppressive.
Some of these movements started as protests, which relied on the unity of individuals involved, although in most cases, they ended up as precursors to civil and even international conflicts.
Among the world-changing political revolutions include the Chinese communist revolution, Iranian Revolution also known as the Islamic Revolution that saw Iranians embarked on demonstrations against the United States-backed Pahlavi dynasty, and which became an inspiration to other movements across the world, including the anti-apartheid movement in South Africa as well as the Haitian revolution – a successful anti-slavery war.
Others were the Fidel Castro-led Cuban Revolution, which culminated in the overthrow of the Batista-led authoritarian government; the Xinhai Revolution in China that led to the collapse of the last imperial dynasty in the country, the Qing Dynasty; the French Revolution that changed modern history in France and Europe in general; the American Revolution, which began after members of the American colonial society refused to submit to Great Britain’s king and parliament’s authority.
There was also the Russian Revolution. The first is known as the February Revolution, which focused on the then Russian capital, Petrograd and led to the collapse of the Russian Empire and abdication of its leader, Emperor Nicholas II and the establishment of a provisional government, and the second known as the October Revolution, which was led by Vladimir Lenin to overthrow the provisional government and imposed a communist government.
African experience
Africa has also had its share of protests and revolutions. They include the Algerian Revolution (1954-62), Angolan War of Independence (1961-74), Egyptian Revolution (1919), Egyptian Revolution (1952), Rwandan Revolution (1959-61), Sudanese Revolution of 1985, Somal
i Revolution (1986-92), and what many refer to as the Arab Spring that swept through Tunisia, Libya and Egypt between 2010 and 2011.
While most leaders of these protests/revolutions predicated their actions on the need to unseat totalitarian regimes, there is no doubt that a few, particularly the most recent ones, were driven by global trend for the younger generation to assume the mantle of leadership given growing unhappiness with the old order. This, perhaps, explains why in the past few years, countries like France, Ireland, Estonia and Austria have elected leaders under the age of 40.
To the electorate in some of these countries, there is a feeling that new approaches are needed for today’s problems. Against this backdrop, less emphasis is being put on age and experience as these young leaders have offered their countries renewed sense of vitality and excitement. The question many have asked against this development is: What could have influenced the youth challenge?
The answer may not be far fetched as the rise of social media has changed the dynamics of politics. There is also no doubt that politics has become much faster and much less predictable and young people feel more comfortable dealing with new dynamics than politicians of the old order. Perhaps, the new trend in global politics informed the popular uprising
that toppled Sudanese authoritarian ruler, Omar al-Bashir, in April 2019. His fall followed months of protests, which began in December 2018 as economic conditions worsened in the country.
While the Sudanese experience, is no doubt an uprising, the ongoing protest against the Kenyan Finance Bill, widely known by hashtag #RejectFinanceBill2024, is a decentralized mass protest in the East African country against tax increases proposed by the President William Ruto administration.
The proposed tax increases were heavily criticized by younger Kenyans, who initially mobilized online, using social media platforms like X, TikTok and Instagram to circulate calls to action.
They also translated the bill into several local languages, used the artificial intelligence tool ChatGPT to answer questions about the bill, and leaked the phone numbers of political leaders to allow protesters to spam them with SMS and WhatsApp messages.
Consequently, peaceful protests began on June 18 in Nairobi, the country’s capital, leading to widely condemned arrests. On June 18, the Kenyan parliament amended the bill, removing some controversial clauses. However, the bill was nonetheless passed the next day, leading to nationwide protests and heavy clashes with security forces.
On June 25, the protesters stormed parliament buildings, leading to clashes with police that resulted in at least 22 deaths and numerous injuries. This forced President Ruto to hold a press conference on June 26 and decided to withhold the signing of the bill due to its unpopularity.
President Ruto did not stop at withholding of assent to the bill, he dismissed his entire cabinet on July 11, with only prime cabinet secretary and concurrent foreign minister Musalia Mudavadi and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua ordered to remain in place. Despite these, the protesters are insisting on his resignation.
Nigeria’s August 1 dateline
The Kenyan experience is about to play out in Nigeria following the planned protest against hardship scheduled for August 1 and 10 although it is not the first time protest of such nature would be taking place since the inception of President Bola Tinubu administration in May last year. Recall that some Nigerians took to the streets in February this year to protest against rising cost of living.
The protest, which started from Minna, the Niger State capital, later spread to a few cities but the protesters retreated following appeals from the government and some stakeholders. However, the looming August protest is likely to be nationwide given the hardship Nigerians are presently going through.
No doubt, President Tinubu inherited an ailing economy as the immediate past Muhammadu Buhari administration left a huge debt profile, but many believe that the cost-of-living crisis was exacerbated, when he (Tinubu) canceled the fuel subsidy regime on his inauguration day (May 29, 2023).
It is also believed that his administration’s floating of the naira, ended up devaluing the currency, thereby hurting millions of Nigerians. It is against these backdrops that some Nigerians, who are frustrated with the country’s crippling 34.2 percent inflation rate, have been calling for the protest on social media posts.
While government has repeatedly called for more time to address the issues, there is no doubt that the people’s patience is not only running out, but is clear that many Nigerians are not interested in listening to any excuse as justification for non-performance. Interestingly, there is no coordinated leadership for the planned protest but several activists have identified with it.
One of them, Omoyele Sowore, the presidential candidate of African Action Congress (AAC) in the 2023 elections and convener of #RevolutionNow movement, is of the view that the protest, tagged #EndBadGovernanceInNigeria, aims to address the country’s governance challenges.
Sowore disclosed this while unveiling a list of 15 critical demands from Nigerians ahead of the protest. He said the demands were compiled from inputs received from Nigerians participating in the #EndBadGovernanceInNigeria campaign.
The demands are directed at President Tinubu’s administration and are considered non-negotiable by the protesters. They include a call for the President to scrap the 1999 Constitution and replace it with a people-made; scrapping the Senate arm of the Nigerian legislative system and make lawmaking a part-time endeavour.
The group also demanded that Nigerian workers be paid a minimum wage of nothing less than N250,000 monthly, increased investment in education; release of Mazi Nnamdi Kanu (leader of Indigenous People of Biafra – IPOB) and demilitarization of the South-East; freedom for all #EndSARS and political detainees; renationalization of public-owned enterprises sold to government officials and their cronies as well as reinstatement of a corruption-free subsidy regime to reduce hunger, starvation and multidimensional poverty.
Others are probe of past and present Nigerian leaders; restructuring of Nigeria; reform of security agencies; establishment of a Special Energy Fund to drive power sector development; immediate reconstitution of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC); massive investment in public works and industrialization and shakeup in the judiciary to remove corrupt judges and judicial officers.
Govt panics, appeals for time
Apparently jolted by the planned protest, the Federal Government not only called for calm but asked for more time to address the prevailing hardship in the country.
Briefing newsmen after a meeting between the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Senator George Akume, and members of the Federal Executive Council, Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, who spoke on behalf of the government, said President Tinubu is doing everything necessary to address the situation.
His words: “What I keep saying is that we are all Nigerians, we are all acting in the interest of Nigerians. The President has said that there’s no need for any protests.
Let’s calm down; a lot is happening. Nigeria is going to move and match on and we believe that whatever government is going to come up with is going to be in the interest of Nigerians.
“We don’t think there’s need for any protest, we are appealing for calm and patience for a peaceful resolution. If you have anything that you want to put out there, you are free to put it out but the government is insisting that we are all Nigerians, we have to be patient and give peace a chance.
Mr. President is working round the clock, ministers are working, everyone is working. All hands are on deck.” President Tinubu, on his part, has been meeting with various stakeholders, including governors and traditional rulers, in his bid to diffuse calls for the protests.
He has equally called for caution against what he termed “premature politics” and “politics of hate and anger” by those calling for protests against his administration. His words: “The sponsors of protests do not love our country. They have no love for the nation. They do not understand citizenship. They have alternative passports.
They are in different parts of the world holding meetings virtually. “We do not want to turn Nigeria into Sudan. We are talking about hunger, not burials. We have to be careful. We should be careful with premature politics; politics of hate, and anger. The internet has made it possible to hold meetings in artificial settings.
They hold meetings and sponsor anger.” Interestingly, the President said at his meeting with the traditional rulers led by the Sultan of Sokoto, Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar III and the Ooni of Ife, Oba Adeyeye Enitan Ogunwusi, that his administration is not afraid of protests but rather worried about potential damages to public property.
His words: “Nigeria is on the path of recovery. We are not afraid of protests. Our concern is the ordinary people and the damages that will be done. Till today, I cannot forget the brand new 60 and 100 seater buses, down there in Lagos that were burnt down, and we are now complaining of transportation. That is the problem.
That is why I must say thank you for talking to the citizens.’’ Tinubu assured the traditional rulers that his administration is committed to addressing the plight of citizens and will do more to meet their needs. He said several initiatives aimed at bringing the government closer to the people, including the activation of a student loan programme, a consumer credit scheme and the affirmation of fiscal autonomy for local governments are already in place.
He urged the royal fathers to reach out to citizens and communicate the government’s genuine intentions to deliver on its promises of Renewed Hope, saying: “Yes, it is true that I asked for this job and I approached some of you to support me. So, I have no excuse not to do the job with sincerity of purpose and honesty. I have committed myself to it diligently, and I will never look backwards.”
He added: “I have accepted the assets and the liabilities of my predecessor. How I will take Nigeria forward should be my concern, and that is my concern. I have been extremely busy. The only exercise I have had here is the walk from the residence to this place and then.
continue with the work. “Nigeria is hilly, and it is the largest democracy in Africa. No other democracy comes close to us in terms of population on the continent. We cannot blame God for giving us these children, and we have to seek peace and better livelihoods. “Now, we are sending money to the local governments.
I addressed the governors today on that issue. I have been distributing fertilizer, rice, and other items to support the recovery of citizens. I assure you, Nigerians, we are looking at the light at the end of the tunnel. I can assure you, this economy will be revived, will survive, and prosper.’’
Security agencies talk tough
While government wants the protest to be shelved, heads of the various security agencies have not only been talking tough but warning that they will resist any attempt at regime change. Leading the agencies is the Department of State Services (DSS), which issued a statement on Thursday, saying it has identified sponsors of the protest.
The DSS in a statement by its spokesperson, Peter Afunanya, said: “The plotters desire to use the intended violent outcome to smear the federal and subnational governments; make them unpopular and pit them against the masses.
The long-term objective is to achieve a regime change, especially at the centre.” Though the agency acknowledged the citizens’ right to protest, it claimed that some elements have planned to hijack it. The police, on its part, have vowed to resist the Kenyan-style protest.
The Inspector General of Police (IGP), Kayode Egbetokun, who described the planned protest as ill-advised, said peaceful protests are allowed under the law but the planned demonstration is designed to foment trouble. “Some groups of people, self-appointed crusaders and influencers, have been strategizing and mobilizing potential protesters to unleash terror in the land under the guise of replicating the recent Kenya protests.
We will, therefore, not sit back and fold our arms to watch unscrupulous elements unleash violence on our peaceful communities or destroy any of our national critical infrastructure and assets again,” Egbetokun said after a meeting with senior officers of the police force in Abuja. Apparently marching his words with action, the IGP, on Friday, directed all groups planning to participate in the protest to submit their details to the commissioners of police in their respective states.
Explaining reason for the directive, he said: “We acknowledge the constitutional right of Nigerian citizens to peaceful assembly and protest. However, in the interest of public safety and order, we urge all groups planning to protest to provide necessary details to the Commissioner of Police in the state, where the protest is intended to take place.
“To facilitate a successful and incident-free protest, they should please provide the following information: state the proposed protest routes and assembly points; expected duration of the protest; and names and contact details of protest leaders and organisers.” Egbetokun added that the information expected from the organisers also include measures to prevent hijacking by criminal elements, as well as key identifiers for possible isolation of potential troublemakers.
He reiterated the police’s determination to deploy adequate personnel and resources to ensure public safety, saying the Force needs to know the specific routes and areas for the protest to avoid conflicts with other events or activities. The IGP also released other guidelines to the protesters, among which were for them to “establish clear communication channels with protest leaders to address any concerns or issues that may arise; minimise the risk of violence, property damage, or other criminal activity.
“We encourage all protesters to cooperate with the police, obey the law, and adhere to global best practices for peaceful assembly to guarantee a safe and successful exercise of their rights.” The military which also warned against the protest, said it has the potential of degenerating into anarchy and a reign of terror based on situational analysis by the military high command.
The Defence Headquarters (DHQ), in a statement by Director of Defence Media Operations, Major General Edward Buba, said this while briefing journalists on the operations of the armed forces on Thursday in Abuja. He said the military had thoroughly examined several factors such as whether or not the planned protest is motivated by opposition politics, independent parties, sovereign interference or terrorist groups and whether other organisations had created the situation by feeding on Nigerians’ frustrations.
He, however, acknowledged that the constitution is clear as to how and when the military gets involved. “The constitution also clearly defines the roles and functions of the armed forces. On the other hand, while citizens have a constitutional right to peaceful protest, they do not have a right to mobilise for anarchy in order to unleash terror.
“The contemporary context of the planned protest is to shadow happenings in Kenya, which have so far been violent and unresolved to date. Given the situation, there are already indicators that unscrupulous elements are bent on hijacking the planned protest for violent purposes,’’ he said.
Echoes of #EndSARS
No doubt, it is the constitutional right of citizens to protest but the fears of the respective security agencies cannot be dismissed given experience of the #EndSARs protest of October 2020.
The protest against the Special Anti-robbery Squad (SARS) of the Nigeria Police Force across major cities of the country was no less a social movement. It started on the social media, particularly Twitter, before the protesters, who are mainly young people hit the streets in the most concerted show of people power in years, calling for a ban of SARS and an end to police oppression and brutality.
Misdemeanors leveled against the police unit by the protesters include kidnapping, murder, theft, rape, torture, unlawful arrests, high handedness, humiliation, unlawful detention, extrajudicial killings, and extortion. After about four days of protests, police authorities responded by disbanding the SARS unit. The then Inspector-General of Police, Mohammed Adamu, who announced the disbandment, however, assured Nigerians of concerted efforts to reform the police force.
Disbandment of SARS followed then President Muhammadu Buhari’s directive for the IGP to “conclusively address the concerns of Nigerians” about police brutality. But, despite government’s assurance and appeal as well as disbandment of SARS, the protesters remained on the streets with more youths joining the protest. Nigerians in the Diaspora, celebrities and sports stars across the world were also not left out even as the protest spread to some cities in Europe and America.
This prompted questions over what the #EndSARS campaigners really wanted. The protesters swiftly responded by coming up with a five-point demand to be met by the Federal Government. The demand which was signed by “A Nigerian Youth” demanded for immediate release of those arrested in the course of the protests as well as justice and compensation for all who died through police brutality in Nigeria.
It also demanded that an independent body be set up within 10 days to investigate and prosecute all reports of police misconduct; psychological evaluation and retraining of SARS operatives before they are deployed to any other police unit and adequate remuneration for police personnel. Government, in a rare concession, accepted the demands.
However, the then IGP’s declaration that the SARS unit would be replaced by a new outfit to be known as Special Weapons and Tactics (SWAT) was rejected by the protesters. The protest later turned violent following escalation of attacks on the protesters by security agents. The aftermath was killings and destruction of private and public assets worth billions of naira, particularly in Lagos State.
It is against the backdrop of a possible repeat of the #EndSARS experience that some stakeholders have called on youths across the country to jettison the planned protest. A former governor of Abia State and chairman, Senate Committee on Privatisation, Senator Orji Uzor Kalu, who is among those that made the call, said though it is within the rights of every Nigeria to protest, embarking on such exercise now will have huge effects on the country.
His words: “While embarking on national protest may be beneficial to our democracy, it is not expedient to our economy. I am appealing to our youths to consider suspending the planned August protest to save possible damages and liabilities on the country’s infrastructure and private businesses.”
Commissioner of Police in Lagos State, Mr. Adegoke Fayoade, who particularly emphasized that the nation’s commercial nerve centre cannot afford another #EndSARS experience, said although the security agencies had resolved that there be no protest in Lagos, no one should take the law into their own hands by attacking protesters.
He said: “If there must be protest, it must be peaceful. We want to know those who want to protest, so that we can make arrangements for their security. “Any group planning a violent protest should rethink. Such a group will meet police and other security agencies. We don’t want a repeat of the #EndSARS.”
Organisers say no going back despite appeals
Despite pleas by the government and other stakeholders, the planned protest is likely to hold although the number of groups that have publicly disassociated themselves from it keeps growing by the day.
The Arewa Youth Ambassadors, for instance, has vowed to continue with the planned protest, saying: “Let’s be categorical, there is no going back on our words, as the protest is scheduled for August 1. Everywhere in the world, people make government, not the other way round. But why should the government brought about by the people in Nigeria be only for those in the corridors of its power?”
The northern group, in a statement signed by its National Coordinator, Yahaya Abdullahi, added: “If the President Tinubu Led government is for Nigerians as a whole, why on earth the false pretences? It’s so sad and pathetic that sufferings have become unspeakable and pervasive, while the powers that be keep on looking the other way.
“We wish to make it clear that the protest becomes necessary considering the insecurity that spirals upward coupled with incessant food and fuel crisis, unemployment and high cost of living bedevilling our region in particular and the country in general. “Arewa Youth Ambassadors state beyond any doubt that the protest will happen on the slated date unless the government reverses its policies that have given rise to gruesome hunger and multidimensional poverty in the land.
“Is Nigeria not even on the brink of revolution? Perhaps, if anything has failed to strike a chord for its outbreak, President Tinubu’s starvation scheme surely will. Because Nigerians would rather be killed on the streets by the security forces being paid through their taxes than be laid to death by hunger in their homes, and maybe on or in their beds. And, you know, hunger knows no bounds.
“Therefore, as a group of peaceful citizens, we are left with no option than to protest the anti masses tendencies that President Tinubu-led government continues to introduce on daily basis.” Sowore, on his part, challenged the Minister of the Federal, Nyesom Wike, over his declaration that Abuja is not available for protests on August 1. He dared the minister, who had warned protesters to stay of the country capital in a post on his social media handle on Friday to declare that the proposed nationwide protests will commence in Abuja.
A social critic, Aisha Yesufu, who advised the DSS to channel its resources on gathering intelligence about kidnappers, terrorists and unknown gunmen rather than clamping down on protesters, said: “DSS should counsel itself on its failure to gather intelligence on the terrorists, bandits, kidnappers and unknown gunmen that have terrorized the nation and forced farmers to flee their farms which has greatly contributed to the hunger in the land.”
Also insisting that the planned protest will across the states of Nigeria as scheduled, a lawyer and human rights activist, Ebun-Olu Adegboruwa (SAN) has notified security agencies, requesting protection over planned public meetings, rallies, and processions by a non-governmental body, the Take It Back Movement, its members, some patriotic Nigerians and groups.
In the letter dated Friday, July 26, Adegboruwa writing as solicitor to the Take It Back Movement notified the Inspector General of Police and the Director of the Department of State Services (DSS) that the planned rallies would commence from August 1 to 10 or any time thereafter.
He said the rallies would be held at the Eagle Square in Abuja and other public spaces in the capital cities of the 36 states and the headquarters of the 774 local government councils. Adegboruwa while reiterating the role of the security agencies during such rallies and protests, urged the leadership of the security agencies to make available the details of any of their officers or teams that will be assigned to cover the said meetings/ rallies/processions to harmonise plans and strategies for the same.
The urgency of now The insistence by the protest leaders not to back down, perhaps, explains why many are of the view that caution should be the word on the part of government to avoid playing into the hands of those who have been calling for a revolution before now. According to them, Nigeria is too fragile at the moment that a “careless push” could reenact the Somalia or Rwanda experiences in Africa’s most populous nation.
It against this backdrop that there seems to be a consensus that there shouldn’t be a clampdown on the protesters but concerted effort by the Federal Government to resolve the issues raised to avert further crisis in a polity already heated by rising insecurity. It was further posited that shelving of the protest might not cause an end to the visible angst in the land.
Those who hold this view, said rather than use of force against dissenting voices, there is the need for visionary leadership, which is the principal element that ensures that government serves as a vehicle for the attainment of the socio-economic aspirations of the citizens.
Members of this political school observed that the leadership deficit that assails Nigeria is so legendary that from all indications, the nation has continued to lag behind in an emerging world order that emphasises clear-headed and able leadership. According to them, Nigeria’s problem has never been paucity of funds and resources, but lack of political will to do the right thing. This, in their view, explains why the country has stagnated in almost all facets, with rising insecurity compounding it woes.
A former presidential candidate of the National Conscience Party (NCP) but now a chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Chief Dele Momodu, who blamed President Tinubu for the hardship and looming protests in the country, advised him to ignore the hawks in his team to clamp down on genuine protesters as well as resist the temptations of full blown dictatorship.
“I’m sad and embarrassed that a fighter for democracy is now saying Nigerians will not be allowed to congregate and demonstrate on the streets, something you and I enjoyed during the military regimes, at home and abroad. “I will never support anarchy, after engaging in peace initiatives in Sierra Leone, Liberia and The Gambia.
But I’m reasonably assured that any potential threat can be contained and nipped in the bud, since our secret service claims to have discovered the sponsors of mayhem. Such people should be arrested speedily. “Please sir, go back to your original friends in civil liberties and seek their assistance.
Then, use this opportunity to test the strength, security architecture and combat readiness of our security agencies. “Ignore the advice of the hawks in your team. They have nothing to lose since they are mostly beneficiaries of what others died for. Resist the temptations of full blown dictatorship… You’re in my prayers as you bear this cross.”
While there is no doubt that mass revolt, apart from the one through the ballot box, will likely not do Nigeria any good given the fact that most mass protests only ended up creating a cycle of crisis and violence, the Tinubu administration, which has repeatedly said it would bring the sufferings of Nigerians to an end, should be reminded that the deterioration of every government begins with the decay of the principle on which it was founded.
