BREAKING: Experts Predict New Price As Dangote gets 48.6m Barrels Of Crude Oil From NNPC

In the last ten months, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) delivered about 48.6 million barrels of crude oil to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery......See Full Story>>.....See Full Story>>

Data from official transactions between the two companies showed that 3.4 million barrels were supplied in December 2023 and 3.5 million in February 2024.

The volume of crude supplies to Dangoote in 2024

Details of the transactions further show that 3.3 million barrels, 3.3 million, three million, 5.1 million, 4.8 million, and 5.6 million barrels of crude were supplied to the refinery in March, April, May, June, July, August, and September 2024, respectively.

The transactions have already recorded 11.7 million barrels for October 2024 deliveries.

Sources said that the volume supplied remains low when compared to the installed 650,000bpd refining capacity of the plant.

According to Vanguard, the NNPC has not yet disclosed the crude oil requirements of Nigeria’s refineries, including the Dangote refinery, in the last quarter of 2024.

However, in the second quarter of 2024, the Nigerian government set the requirement for all Nigeria’s refineries, including Dangote Refinery, at 597,700 barrels daily, an increase of 114.700 barrels daily from 483,000 barrels per day in the first half of the year.

The second quarter of 2024 assessment shows that the NNPC may have secured the crude oil requirements of Dangote Refinery at less than 50% of the installed production capacity.

Petrol imports decline in 2023

Meanwhile, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that the volume of petrol imports dropped yearly by 12.6% to 20.29 billion litres in 2023 from 23.24 billion litres in 2022.

The NBS disclosed this on Tuesday, October 1, 2024, in its Petroleum Products Distribution Statistics for 2023, saying that petrol trucks also fell by 16.9% yearly to 20.22 billion litres from 24.35 billion litres in 2022.

The NBS report said the volume of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), also known as diesel import, increased to 4.94 billion litres in 2023 from 3.99 billion litres in 2022.

The data showed that 109.39 million litres of diesel were locally produced in 2023, representing a 6.76% rise from 102.47 million litres produced in 2022.

Also, household kerosene produced locally increased by 56% yearly to 69,7 million litres in 2023 from 44.68 million litres in 2024.

However, the data showed that local production of Petrol ended in 2018 when 128.08 million litres were produced.

However, the data showed that local production of Petrol ended in 2018 when 128.08 million litres was produced.

NBS said:

“In 2023, PMS truck out stood at 20.22 billion litres, indicating a 16.96% decrease relative to 24.35 billion litres recorded in 2022.
“About 69.71 million litres of HHK were locally produced in 2023 compared to 44.68 million litres in 2022, indicating a growth rate of 56.02 per cent.”

Analysts say the commencement of crude oil sale in naira to Dangote will not impact petrol prices as the local currency is already devalued.

Energy policy analyst Adeola Yusuf says that since Dangote is not selling petrol directly to the end user, the product price would remain the same.

“The only reason crude oil sales in naira to Dangote and other refineries are good is because it will eliminate the need to source forex. Otherwise, petrol prices will remain unchanged.
“Also, remember that the NNPC is the sole distributor of Dangote petrol and is responsible for product pricing in Nigeria,” he said.
Marketers weigh Dangote petrol price with imported fuel

Legit earlier reported that oil marketers in Nigeria would buy petrol directly from Dangote Refinery. However, they would face price challenges.

The reason is a price difference between Dangote petrol price and imported PMS.

While the Dangote Refinery can supply much of Nigeria’s domestic petrol needs, the government strictly controls pricing via the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), creating a significant hurdle for marketers.

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