As Nigeria braces for the 2027 presidential election, the political landscape under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is unraveling in ways that suggest a dramatic decline in support for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) across key states, including Kogi and Kaduna. Political betrayals, alleged politically motivated prosecutions, worsening economic hardship, and a growing sense of disenchantment among the electorate have created a volatile storm that could cost Tinubu and his allies the presidency......Read The Full Article>>.....Read The Full Article>>
Tinubu’s Political Chess Game
According to inside stories, President Tinubu’s strategic politicking reportedly involved leveraging Kogi Governor Yahaya Bello to thwart Nasir El-Rufai’s ministerial ambitions. Bello was allegedly asked to influence Senator Sunday Karimi who opposed El-Rufai’s nomination during the Senate’s screening, citing national security concerns. This move deepened cracks in APC’s northern bloc.
However, Bello’s ambition to seek APC’s national chairmanship reportedly irked Tinubu, prompting a swift response. Soon after, the EFCC intensified probes into Bello’s financial dealings, signaling political retribution.
By the time the dust settled, El-Rufai was sidelined, Bello politically weakened, and Tinubu’s influence strengthened. Critics view it as a masterclass in power play, underscoring Tinubu’s deft control of party politics and his readiness to neutralize allies and rivals alike.
The Tumult in Kogi: Persecution or Politics?
The EFCC’s trial of Yahaya Bello, the combative and influential outgoing governor of Kogi State, is being widely perceived as a calculated political persecution. Many observers tie the saga to Bello’s refusal to step down for Tinubu during the contentious APC presidential primaries in 2023. Bello’s bold presidential bid showcased his significant political clout and his ambition to emerge as a national leader—a stance that deeply rattled Tinubu’s camp.
Even after the primaries, Bello remained defiantly independent, withholding full-fledged support for Tinubu’s campaign in ways that created quiet but palpable tension. When Bello later aimed for the APC National Chairmanship following Tinubu’s inauguration, it was seen as a further challenge to the president’s consolidation of power. This ambition was swiftly quashed, and the subsequent EFCC investigations into Bello’s financial dealings are viewed by his ardent supporters as deliberate retaliation. The timing and intensity of the scrutiny, when juxtaposed with the impunity enjoyed by other APC powerbrokers, lend credibility to claims of selective justice.
Bello’s Deep Political Roots
Yahaya Bello’s influence extends far beyond Kogi State. His wide-reaching network, cultivated through strategic relationships with youth leaders, Northern elites, and grassroots organizations, makes him a potent force in Nigerian politics. Despite his polarizing image, Bello commands unyielding loyalty in Kogi, where he has constructed a formidable political machine. This network has grown even stronger with the election of his loyal protégé, Usman Ododo, as governor. Ododo’s victory ensures that Bello remains a central player in Kogi politics, a situation that complicates Tinubu’s hold on the state.
With Ododo’s administration deeply aligned with Bello’s vision, Tinubu faces a significant hurdle in rallying support from Kogi’s political base in 2027. This reality is amplified by the popular perception that Bello is being unfairly targeted by a government he helped bring to power.
Kaduna’s Chaotic Rift
Kaduna, once a bastion of APC dominance, has also descended into political turmoil. Nasir El-Rufai, the fiery former governor and erstwhile Tinubu loyalist, was denied a ministerial appointment under controversial circumstances, a move many saw as a betrayal. This decision has fractured the APC in Kaduna, with El-Rufai’s loyalists viewing Tinubu’s administration as insincere and exclusionary.
Meanwhile, Kaduna residents grapple with surging insecurity and economic hardship, issues that Tinubu’s administration has failed to address effectively. The dissatisfaction is fueling the opposition, particularly the PDP, which is capitalizing on the discontent to make inroads in the state.
Northern Politicians’ Plot to Unseat Tinubu
A brewing rebellion within the North poses one of the gravest threats to Tinubu’s reelection bid. Many Northern politicians, including influential governors, traditional rulers, and grassroots leaders, are reportedly plotting to unseat the president in 2027. Tinubu’s perceived favoritism toward the South-West and his inability to adequately address Northern insecurity, economic deprivation, and infrastructural decay have alienated key powerbrokers in the region.
High-level meetings among Northern elites suggest a coordinated effort to undermine Tinubu’s dominance. Discussions are reportedly underway to rally support around a consensus Northern candidate who can unite the region’s vast voting bloc. This strategy, reminiscent of the tactics used in previous elections, could fracture the APC and give the opposition a decisive advantage.
Opposition Unity: A Growing Threat
While the APC struggles with internal divisions, the opposition is showing signs of unprecedented unity. Leaders from the PDP, Labour Party, and other smaller parties have been meeting discreetly to strategize on how to oust Tinubu. Their focus is on building a formidable coalition that can capitalize on widespread discontent with the APC.
Key figures like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rabiu Kwankwaso are reportedly considering a unified front, setting aside personal ambitions to prioritize removing the APC from power. This coalition-building effort, combined with grassroots mobilization, is poised to present Tinubu with his toughest challenge yet.
Economic Despair and Political Disillusionment
Under Tinubu, Nigeria’s economy has faced catastrophic challenges. Inflation has soared to unprecedented levels, the removal of subsidies has left citizens reeling, and the devaluation of the naira has pushed millions into deeper poverty. These economic woes, coupled with the APC’s perceived failure to provide meaningful relief, are eroding trust in the party’s ability to govern effectively.
Political betrayals within the APC, ranging from Bello’s marginalization to El-Rufai’s exclusion, have added fuel to the fire. Former allies who were instrumental in Tinubu’s ascent are now disillusioned, with many quietly plotting to undermine his reelection bid.
#### **The Gathering Storm for 2027**
If Tinubu fails to reconcile with figures like Yahaya Bello and Nasir El-Rufai while addressing the economic and security concerns of the North, he risks losing not only Kogi and Kaduna but also the presidency. The growing unity of the opposition, coupled with the discontent among Northern politicians, is a clear warning sign for the APC.
The 2027 election is shaping up to be a referendum not just on Tinubu’s presidency but on the APC’s ability to manage Nigeria’s fragile democracy. Without urgent and meaningful action to address grievances and heal fractures, the APC may face an electoral debacle that spans far beyond Kogi and Kaduna, threatening its very existence as Nigeria’s ruling party.
