The 10-day nationwide hunger protest, tagged #EndBadGovernanceProtest, which began on August 1, had lost steam long before its billed end date of Saturday, August 10, in part on account of repression by state agents. But in its wake is a resounding message to President Bola Tinubu that the country’s core north, whose votes saw him over the finish line in the highly contentious 2023 presidential election, may no longer be there for the taking come another contest in 2027.....KINDLY READ THE FULL STORY HERE▶
Riotous scenes in Kaduna, Kano, Jigawa, Zamfara, Nasarawa and elsewhere in the north, which characterized the protests in the region, led to the reported killing of not less than 17 individuals, including Isma’il Muhammad, 18, who was shot at point blank range by a soldier in Zaria; a bride to-be, Firdausi Muhammad, killed by a stray bullet in Rijiyar Lemo, Kano, among many others, as security agencies sought to quell the protests.
Attempts by Bayo Onanuga, special adviser to the president on media and strategy to pin the protest on Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the last election, his supporters across Nigeria, and, indeed, Igbo people in general, failed to materialize as the South East firmly boycotted the protest, while thousands, fuelled by anger over unpalatable economic realities in the country, stormed northern capitals to more or less pass a vote of no confidence on Tinubu. Many raised Russian flags, calling for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intervention in Nigeria, even as some expressly called for military takeover of the country.
“Russia is communist, while the West is capitalist. They (the West) are actually exploiting our resources. Our leaders have been their puppet and we can’t take it anyone,” declared Aliyu Abdullahi, one of the protesters waving Russian flags in Kaduna.
Another protester, Lawal Saleh, shared similar opinion. “People are dying because of hunger, let the president restore fuel subsidy,” he said. “We’re looking for help from Russia.”
The federal government has since arrested over 90 persons across the region in connection with the Russian flags, which the Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa had branded a treasonable act, while over 800 have been arrested in connection with the protests. Force spokesperson, Olumuyiwa Adejobi, who announced the arrests last week, said the operatives of the Force were working relentlessly to arrest those, who sponsored the mass-production of the flags.
Also in the custody of the Department of State Service (DSS) are seven Polish nationals, who were arrested in connection with the violent protests in Kano.
The spokesperson of the DSS, Peter Afunanya, revealed on Wednesday, when the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yusuf Tuggar, held a meeting with members of the Diplomatic Corps, that the seven individuals were being grilled by the service. Poland has, however, said those arrested were only
taking pictures
and had nothing to do with the protest.
The use of Russian flags by the protesters, and the violent turn of the protests in northern states had led to various speculations about the motive. Speaking on Channels TV on Tuesday, Shehu Sani, former Kaduna Central Senator, alleged that they were part of a plot by certain interest groups to overthrow the government of Bola Tinubu.
Sani, a known political adversary of Nasir El-Rufai, the immediate past governor of Kaduna State, noted that although the intention of the protest was genuine, the idea was hijacked in the north by elements seeking to change the script.
“What we have seen in the last few days is not a peaceful protest as far as I’m concerned from the northern part of Nigeria. The whole idea was hijacked and the script was changed as far as the north was concerned. Those, who called for the protest may have come from Lagos or anywhere, but there were no visible leadership as far as Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa and all these states witnessed violence in the north are concerned,” Sani said.
“It’s a fact that even protests have rules, and the first rule is that there should be a reason for people to protest. Of course, there’s hunger, hardship, there’s suffering as a result of the economic reforms programme, which is enough reason for people to protest. But secondly, a protest also needs leadership, whose responsibility is to control and guide the crowd.
“That was not the case in the north, and from what we have seen, especially in Kaduna State, where I come from, people were called out to the streets and then left on autopilot. Young people used the opportunity to launch attacks on public infrastructure and loot establishments.
“Then a new dimension to this is that a day before the last protest, money was shared to youths and Russian flags were also shared. That shows that the whole intent of the protest was an attempt to create an atmosphere, where there would be an overthrow of the government. And when you have this situation, you will see that there’s someone writing a script for anarchy.”
Sani’s remarks is not, however, supported by concrete evidence. And findings by Business Hallmark, interacting with individuals in the north, indicate that the protesters drew inspirations from recent military coups in neighbouring Niger Republic, as well as Mali and Burkina Faso, where the junta that took power sought alliance with Russia while severing relationships with the West.
“These situations mirror what happened in Mali, Niger and elsewhere, where military coups eventually toppled democratically elected governments. When those coups occurred, we witnessed sporadic protests in support of the military and Russia, and the new military regimes immediately turned to Russia,” noted Bulama Bukarti, @bulamabukarti, lawyer and senior fellow at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
He warned, however, that, “Military governments are dictatorial, ineffective, and often brutal. I sincerely hope Nigeria does not follow this path. However, the rampant corruption, inefficiency and lack of empathy among our politicians are undermining democracy and fueling calls for a military takeover. The sooner politicians get their act together and prove their ability to govern effectively, the better it will be for everyone.”
Anti Western sentiments are growing across West Africa, and has recently gathered momentum in Nigeria, in part, because of expositions by notable influencers like journalist, David Hundeyin, who has attempted to draw a direct link between Africa’s underdevelopment and Western interest on the continent.
The waving of Russian flags is best appreciated in this context, even if it is possible, as Senator Sani alleged, that there are political actors behind it.
North, South West Alliance
In the aftermath of the 2023 presidential election, which Tinubu relied heavily on votes from the North West and the North East to emerge victorious, people like Femi Fani-Kayode, former minister of Aviation, went to town to tout an unbreakable alliance between the people of the north West and the South West, which according to him, would withstand any storm, and rule Nigeria for forever.
“Whether anyone likes it or not one thing is clear: this is a new Nigeria, where UNITY is the watchword & where the newly-established alliance & new-found trust between the people of the SW & the people of the North shall NEVER again be BROKEN. TOGETHER we can withstand ANY storm,” the former minister wrote in a post via his X handle, @realFFK, on March 30, 2023.
In a subsequent post on May 11 that same year, he wrote: “The alliance between the old Western Region and the old Northern Region, which the January 15th 1966 coup plotters put to an end, has finally been re-established, 57 years later, in 2023.
“This is the doing of the Lord and it is marvellous in our sight.”
Buhari’s ascension to the presidency in 2015 at the expense of Goodluck Jonathan was made possible by the Bola Tinubu led South West, which entered into a political alliance with the North. The Tinubu South West subsequently backed Buhari for second term in 2019, and defended him staunchly for the eight years he was in office, despite his unimpressive records in office.
In 2023, the North reciprocated this gesture by supporting Tinubu to take power, cementing the North/South West political alliance. Many in the South West expected the North to stand firmly behind Tinubu as they did for Buhari for eight years, but a little more than a year into the Tinubu presidency, it has become obvious that the north is not ready to endure hardship without complaints, as the country continues to grapple with a cost of living crisis since the president ended petrol subsidy regime on his inauguration day in 2023 and floated the exchange rate a week afterwards.
Pump price of fuel has topped N800 per litre, from N180 under Buhari, while the naira has collapsed from N700 to over N1600 with attendant inflation, which rose to 34.19 percent in June 2024 — up from 33.95 percent in May, according to NBS figures. Food inflation surged to 40.87 percent in the month under review as prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages soared.
Hunger has become widespread across the country, and nowhere as pronounced as the north, where poverty had remained high. Families have been captured eating leaves to survive as a combination of banditry and terrorism continue to keep villagers away from the farms.
“Sicklepod (tafasa in Hausa), a drought-tolerant plant that grows freely in the North and eaten as a last resort during famine, is now sold in the market. The masses in Nigeria are currently facing famine,” noted Kano journalist, Jaafar Jaafar, @JaafarSJaafar
“Without forethought, Tinubu made a single mistake of withdrawing petrol subsidy and floating the naira in his inaugural speech, throwing the nation into sudden economic chaos. Whatever palliative measures the president may announce to placate the people, it will not take the nation out of hyper-inflation, hunger and misery.”
Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket helped in no small amount to endear him to many in the core Muslim North, but his popularity has vastly waned in the region. In the course of last week’s protests, the president’s billboards were pulled down and burnt by angry protesters, and on social media, many have vowed to deal with anyone, who comes to campaign for him in 2027.
“2027 will tell,” said Maulud Sarki Fal. “I’m very sure that whoever comes to campaign or advocate for Tinubu will receive beating of his life.”
Engr. AL Ameen Musa, a Facebook user, who said he’s a leader in the ruling APC in his constituency, swore to work against the party in the forthcoming local government election.
“I’m APC youth leader in my constituency and I’m against Tinubu. I’ve already mobilized more than 10000 people ready to support a different candidate ahead of the upcoming local government elections. APC has failed Nigerians, especially in the north,” he said.
Across social media, members of the APC in the North and their South West counterparts have continued to go at each other. For those from the South West, the unwillingness of those from the North to stand by Tinubu amounted to betrayal, because they stood by Buhari throughout his eight years in office. The Northern influencers, however, insist that Nigeria has become much worse than was the case under Buhari, and in any case, the protest against Tinubu in the region was driven by hunger and frustration, not because a northerner was no longer president.
Reputation damage
Tinubu’s not so-stellar reputation has been further damaged in the north, where he’s increasingly being portrayed as a greedy person, who cares only about his interest, especially in the wake of the recent revelation by Aliko Dangote, president of the Dangote Group, that some officials of the NNPC own blending plants in Malta, which is why his refinery was being undermined.
Oando PLC, which the president is said to have interest in, was quickly identified as the owner of Ras Hanzir Oil Terminal Limited, one of the companies involved in the blending, but the company came out to deny the allegations.
Regardless, the president continues to be linked to the Malta heist, especially as it emerged a few days after Dangote’s allegations, that Nigeria imported fuel worth $2.8bn in 2023 from Malta, a 342 per cent increase from $47.5m in 2013, according to information on Trade Map.
Nigeria imported fuel worth $59.98m in 2014; $117.01m in 2015 and $13.32m in 2016. It was observed that from 2017 to 2022, there was no fuel importation into Nigeria from Malta.
The spike in the importation from Malta coincided with the coming on board of President Tinubu, which has led to questions about his possible involvement.
“Tinubu has 17 oil well in Niger-Delta, that I know,” alleged Dr. Garus Gololo, an APC chieftain in a video that has gone viral on social media. “His children, Kunle and Wale Jnr run his refinery for him in Malta. OandO and Agip belongs to him now. He pays himself the subsidy he removed. So, fuel price will never be down. He also gave himself N15trn contract.”
Business Hallmark could not, however, verify these claims by Gololo. But it adds to the growing resentment towards the president in the North.
A skit maker and social critic, Bello Galadanci, alias Dan Bello, recently did a video exposing how a certain ‘Tunlumbu’ was using his office to undermine the country’s economy by paying himself subsidy after importing fuel from his company in Malta.
Skits by Bello, described by some as the biggest opposition voice in the North, are gaining increasing traction in the region, although he never spared Buhari while he was president.
The appointment ex-Kastina State governor, Aminu Masari, as the new Chairman, Board of the Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFund), and the nomination of Badamasi Lawal as Chief Executive Officer, National Social Investment Programme Agency (NSIPA), have been interpreted in some quarters as part of efforts by the president to reverse his sliding popularity in the North. It remains to be seen how events will play out ahead of 2027, which is still a long way.