Determined to produce his successor, Godwin Obaseki, governor of Edo State, last week fired warning shots at his opponents ahead of the state’s September 21, 2024, gubernatorial election; an election that is increasingly shaping up to be a battle of wits and brute force, but one his chosen candidate, Asue Ighodalo, remains favourite to win......See Full Story>>.....See Full Story>>
Tension escalated last week following Thursday’s shooting at the exit gate of Benin Airport, when Philip Shaibu, the reinstated deputy governor of the state, accompanied by the All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship candidate, among other party faithful, attempted to paint the town red in celebration of his court victory. It quickly backfired, with the embattled deputy governor immediately learning, who the boss is.
The shooting, which left a policeman dead, and others injured, has led to blame game between the two camps. Crusoe Osagie, Special Adviser to the State Governor on Media Projects, frontally accused the Shaibu camp of instigating the shooting, but the deputy governor quickly dismissed the suggestion, wondering how he could instigate his own attack.
Prior to the airport incident, the impeachment of Eghe Ogbemudia, daughter of Samuel Ogbemudia, former governor of defunct Mid West Region and Bendel State, as the Chairman of Egor Local Government Area of the state, had charged the atmosphere within the Benin metropolis.
Eghe, an influential grassroots politician, was accused of padding of the Council’s N1.7bn supplementary budget and of corruption, and impeached while she travelled to the United States to visit her daughter, who was delivered of a baby, Business Hallmark gathered. She was previously suspended by Obaseki over similar allegations, but the suspension was later lifted. Following her impeachment, meanwhile, Frank Osawe, vice-chairman of the council, was directed to take over the affairs of the LGA.
Potentially violent poll
In the wake of the airport incident, the atmosphere in Benin City has remained tensile, and many say the election itself is most likely to be marred by violence.
“Everyone is worried about what might happen during the election,” said Oluchi Eze, a corps member in the state, who initially planned to register as an INEC ad-hoc staff for the election. “I was discouraged from registering to become ad-hoc staff. The people here told me it would be too dangerous. In the past, youth corps members have been injured on even killed.”
The 2016 election that produced Obaseki as governor, saw some level of violence and vote rigging, which ultimately culminated in him, as APC candidate backed by then outgoing governor, Adams Oshiomhole, being declared winner ahead of PDP’s Osagie Ize-Inyamu, who many believe was the actual winner of the election.
The subsequent election in 2020, despite having a heated buildup, as Obaseki and his erstwhile godfather, Oshiomhole battled for superiority, was largely peaceful. Obaseki, having defected to the PDP after he was denied APC ticket, defeated his 2016 opponent, Ize-Inyamu again, but this time, in a fair contest. The predominant political sentiment had tilted in Obaseki’s favour, as many saw Oshiomhole as a meddlesome figure, who wanted to assume the role of political godfather and probably replicate President Bola Tinubu’s hold on Lagos. Hence, the catchphrase, ‘Edo no be Lagos,’ became the rallying cry for Obaseki, who then went on to win reelection, helped by the decision of the then president, Muhammadu Buhari, to allow a free and fair contest.
But in many ways, the 2020 polls was also a defeat for Tinubu, who had days to the election, urged the electorate to vote out Obaseki, a move, which backfired. Now president, the former Lagos governor has since declared his intention to bring federal might to bear, when voters head to the polls on September 21.
“You know me well, and you know Adams Oshiomhole well. We’re still going to fight further. Don’t worry, we’re with you, you will not work alone,” Tinubu had told enthusiastic party leaders from Edo who visited him Aso Rock last year. “One thing I can assure you is, yes, do you want Edo back? I am the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. I will bring Edo back to you.”
In terms pedigree, Senator Monday Okpebholo, the APC candidate whose educational qualifications remain subject of controversy, and who has been accused of submitting falsified birth records to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), is no match for Ighodalo of the PDP, and indeed, Labour Party’s Olumide Akpata, former president of the Nigeria Bar Association (NBA), but the APC candidate and his supporters will hope to rely on federal might to see them over the finish line.
However, whatever force Abuja would be bringing, Obaseki, whose candidate is easily the most popular both Edo South and Central, appear ready to go toe to toe.
Asue ‘e go do am’
The September poll is widely seen from the outside as a three-horse race. The APC candidate, Okpebholo, backed by the APC structure is certainly a serious contender. Akpata of Labour Party, who has demonstrated unmatched determination, continues to run catchy adverts on radio and television stations, as well as embarking on grassroots campaign. He hopes to ride the wave of the Obidient Movement that saw Peter Obi win Edo by a landslide in the presidential election last year.
But on ground, particularly, in Edo South and Central, which together make up roughly 70 percent of the voting population, Ighodalo is much more fancied. Many residents spoken to, while not necessarily backing the PDP candidate, say they believe he’s the favourite to win the election, given the factors of funds at his disposal and capacity to mobilize support.
“Ighodalo is the person most people believe will win it,” said Osazuwa Kevin, a trader at New Benin. “He is spending money a lot, and you know money plays key role in election. He is going to the grassroots and mobilising support. The only thing that could deny him victory is if the APC uses violence, and I see the election being marred by violence. But you know that Obaseki is himself a fighter. He will do everything to ensure that his candidate wins. That governor is a very tough man.”
Asked about Akpata of Labour Party, he dismissed his chances, noting that he doesn’t have what it takes to win.
Eze, the youth corps member who teaches in school in Benin City shares similar views.
“Asue ‘e go do am’ is the popular catch phrase, even here in our school, almost everyone is for Asue Ighodalo. They believe he’s the person that will win it,” said Eze. “Although the PDP here is divided into two factions, Asue is very much on ground. Everywhere you go, it’s his poster you see. He has the most support by far.”
A divided PDP
The rift between Obaseki and Chief Dan Orbih, PDP’s national vice chairman (South-South), who is a loyalist of Nyesom Wike, minister of the Federal Capital Territory, found expression in the party’s primary election. Orbih opposed the choice of Ighodalo, but Obaseki ensured that he emerged. Both camps continue to be at loggerheads.
A fortnight ago, the PDP national leadership suspended Orbih from participating in all meetings, activities and programs of the party pending the conclusion of investigation into alleged anti-party activities against him in Edo, where he’s alleged to be actively working against Ighodalo in favour of APC’s Okpebholo.
The Edo State PDP Youth League (EPYL) had asked the NWC of PDP to immediately summon and sanction Orbih for alleged anti-party conduct. The group said Orbih should be sanctioned for jubilating over what it called the erroneous media report that the Federal High Court in Abuja annulled the primary election that produced Ighodalo, as PDP governorship candidate.
The PDP vice chairman had in 2023, alongside Wike and his group, backed Bola Tinubu against the party’s candidate, Atiku Abubakar in the presidential election. Wike, who played key role in the last Edo election in support of Obaseki, is alleged to be actively backing APC this time around.
Also backing the APC candidate is Philip Shaibu, the embattled deputy governor, who has officially detected to the party from the PDP.
But the APC itself is battling internal crisis in Edo. Senator Oshiomhole, the defacto leader of the party in the state, had backed Dennis Idahosa, a member of the House of Representatives, as candidate. He was initially declared winner of the state’s primary election, but several stakeholders of the party in the state, including Ize-Inyamu, protested, demanding that the ticket be ceded to Edo Central in the interest of equity and fairness.
Their protest yielded results. Another primary was conducted – a mere formality – and Okpebholo emerged candidate. But that also created dissatisfaction in the party. A good number of Oshiomhole’s loyalists, notably, Emmanuel Odigie, switched support for PDP’s Ighodalo, insisting that the APC candidate doesn’t have what it takes to govern the state.
Power shift to Edo Central
An underlining factor in the Edo election is a general consensus that power should shift to Edo Central geopolitical zone; a way of giving the Esan clan a sense of belonging. And apart from having more established political structure, this is another reason Ighodalo and Okpebholo, who come from the zone have an advantage over Akpata, who is from Edo South, the same zone as Obaseki.
The return of democracy in 1999 saw the emergence of Lucky Igbenedion, a Benin man from Edo South as governor. He handed over to Oserheimen Osunbor, an Esan from Edo Central in 2007, but Osunbor’s election was overturned by the court in 2008, paving the way for Oshiomhole, from Auchi in Edo North to become governor. Oshiomhole, upon the completion of his tenure in 2016, handed power to Obaseki, who is Benin from Edo South. With his second term coming to an end this year, therefore, he is expected to hand power to Edo Central, and it’s, perhaps, with this in mind that he is backing Ighodalo.
The APC, which had initially produced Dennis Idahosa, a member of the House of Representatives from Edo South, had to schedule another primary as pressure mounted from within, to select Okpebholo, the current Edo Central senator as candidate.
Many stakeholders across party lines have argued strongly for power shift to the Central zone. Of the state’s three senatorial zones, Edo South, the Benin clan, has majority of the voting population, constituting an estimated 45 percent. Next in line is the Edo North which accounts for about 35 percent, according to recent findings, while the Central which brings up the rear with about 20 percent or less.
With roughly 80 percent of the voting population shared between them, the Edo South and North have dominated the state power corridor since the return of democracy in 1999, with the former holding power for a combined 16 years, and the former eight years, while the Central only had a brief stint with Osunbor, who was in power for roughly one year.
“There’s a general feeling that Esan people should also be given a sense of belonging,” said Osazuwa. “For so long they have not produced a governor, so that’s understandable. It’s important that every part of the state is carried along and thankfully, they have very qualified candidates now.”
Osazuwa is from Edo South, which hosts the capital city, Benin, and holds much of the aces, which also means that a candidate the Oba of Benin, Ewuare II, backs, will stand a good chance. The royal family and the Obaseki family have had historical rivalry, and that has also played out between the governor and the the current Oba, though the issues appear to have died down.
Edo is one of the states where the Obidient Movement is very strong, and it was not surprise Peter Obi thrashed both Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Bola Tinubu of the APC in the presidential election there. But the movement has now bitterly split between those who are backing power shift to the Central in the interest of fairness, and are mostly backing the PDP candidate who they say is competent, and those who insist that Akpata should be supported in the interest of competence and overall interest of the Labour Party gaining momentum going into 2027.
The split, coupled with the leadership crisis and allegations of corruption in the Labour Party, will further dim Akpata’s chances.
Obaseki, Shaibu trade words over shooting
Edo PDP chairman, Dr. Anthony Aziegbemi, condemned what he said was a wanton destruction of property and resort to violence allegedly by Shaibu, and thugs of the APC. On its part, the APC accused the PDP and the Commissioner of Police in Edo, Funsho Adegboye of complicity in the attack on Okpebholo and Shaibu.
Addressing journalists at a press conference in Benin-City the APC Campaign Council Director of Media, Kassim Afegbua, alleged that the ruthless shooting and killing of a policeman was witnessed by the police chief.
But the State Commissioner of Police exonerated himself of any wrongdoing during the mayhem. PDP chieftain, Aziegbemi, who also addressed journalists at the party’s secretariat in Benin City, Edo State, said the incident showed how desperate the APC in Edo State had become, “in their bid to foist their mute and incoherent candidate on Edo people.”