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The global telecommunications industry is projected to generate $1.3 trillion in total revenue by 2028, despite facing sluggish growth and pricing challenges.
This is according to PwC’s Global Telecom Outlook 2024-2028 report.
The report revealed that total service revenue across fixed and mobile networks increased by 4.3% in 2023 to $1.14 trillion.
However, the industry’s revenue growth rate is expected to slow down.
“Global industry revenues will rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 2.9% through 2028, below the projected rate of inflation, at which point total revenues will edge up to US$1.3 trillion,” the report stated.
According to the report, Nigeria’s telecommunications industry recorded significant growth in 2024, with total mobile service revenue reaching $7.6 billion.
The sector is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% between 2023 and 2028, making it one of the fastest-growing telecom markets globally.
The report highlights that Nigeria’s telecom growth is primarily driven by an increase in mobile subscriptions rather than higher average revenue per user (ARPU).
“In Nigeria, fixed-line ARPU is projected to decline at a CAGR of –1.4%, while subscriber numbers rise at a CAGR of 9.8%,” the report stated.
Pricing limitations hinder growth
According to the report, the global telecommunications industry is facing a fundamental challenge: the increasing commoditization of its core products and services. This has made it difficult for telecom companies to raise prices, even as they continue to invest heavily in infrastructure.
“Its core products and services are becoming commodities, meaning it has difficulty raising prices, while it faces a continual need to invest in infrastructure,” the report stated.
Despite these obstacles, the industry still holds opportunities for growth. PwC projects that by 2028, the global telecom sector will see an additional $200 billion in incremental revenue growth.
“By 2028, there will be an additional US$200 billion in incremental revenue growth up for grabs across the sector.”
However, this slow revenue expansion has increased pressure on telecom companies to find new ways to generate value from existing revenue streams.
Variations in growth
While overall telecom revenue growth remains modest, PwC’s report highlights significant differences across services and regions:
- Fixed broadband and mobile subscriptions are expected to see steady growth, with CAGRs of 3.8% and 4.3%, respectively, between 2023 and 2028.
- Fixed voice subscriptions, on the other hand, are projected to decline, with a CAGR of -1.8% over the same period.
Emerging markets are expected to lead telecom growth, while mature markets experience stagnation or decline.
According to the report, countries such as India, Nigeria, Egypt, and Kenya are showing above-average growth rates, whereas mature markets like Japan and Switzerland are seeing little to no growth.
“In fixed telecoms, most countries are grouped around the 0 to 6% CAGR range, including the US and China. But a few outliers show much higher growth—notably India, Nigeria, Egypt, and Kenya.”
Mobile revenue growth varies significantly, with Colombia leading at a 10.5% CAGR, followed by India and Argentina, while mature markets like Japan and Switzerland see declines.